Investment opportunities and bankruptcy prediction

A firm's mix of growth options and assets in place is an important determinant of its optimal default strategy. Our simple model shows that shareholders of a firm with valuable investment opportunities would be able/willing to wait longer before defaulting on their contractual debt obligations than shareholders of an otherwise identical firm without such opportunities. More importantly, we show empirically using a dataset of recent corporate bankruptcies that measures of investment opportunities are significantly related to the likelihood of bankruptcy. Augmenting existing bankruptcy prediction models by these measures improves their out-of-sample forecasting ability.     

Characteristics of learning computer-controlled mechanisms by teachers and students in a common laboratory environment

Growing popularity of robotics education motivates developing its didactics and studying it in teacher training programs. This paper presents a study conducted in the Department of Education in Technology and Science, Technion, in which university students and school pupils cope with robotics challenges of designing, building and operating computer-controlled mechanisms. The university students were involved in developing robot prototypes and related instructional materials, and assisted in teaching robotics and guiding projects to middle school and high school pupils. The study focused on behaviors of the two groups of learners and aimed to elicit and analyze typical characteristics of learning in the developed robotics environment. We collected qualitative data on learning through robot design and experimentation activities and, by means of the ground theory method, elicited and analyzed typical behavioral characteristics of students’ and pupils’ learning: self-confidence, help, collaboration, interest, seriousness, self-dependence, learning effort, responsibility, coping with learning pressure, learning through observation, and perseverance. As found, the behavior characteristics evolve in the course of robotics studies and their evolution can give indication on the development of the desired competences.     

Accelerated investment effect of risky debt

In this paper we examine a new effect of risky debt on a firm’s investment strategy. We call this effect “accelerated investment”. It stems from a potential loss of investment option in the event of default. The possibility of default reduces the value of the option to wait and provides equity holders with an incentive to speed up investment. As a result, in the absence of wealth expropriation by a levered firm’s debt holders, its shareholders exercise their investment option earlier than the shareholders of an otherwise identical all-equity firm. This result is at odds with the generally accepted intuition that in the absence of potential wealth transfers and taxes the shareholders of a levered firm would follow the same investment policy as that of an unlevered firm. In addition to providing various illustrations of the accelerated investment effect, we relate its magnitude to the presence of competition for investment opportunities.     

Understanding Investor Sentiment: The Case of Soccer

We examine the extent to which the stock market's inefficient responses to resolutions of uncertainty depend on investors’ biased ex ante beliefs regarding the probability distribution of future event outcomes or their ex post irrational reactions to these outcomes. We use a sample of publicly traded European soccer clubs and analyze their returns around important matches. Using a novel proxy for investors’ expectations based on contracts traded on betting exchanges (prediction markets), we find that within our sample, investor sentiment is attributable, in part, to a systematic bias in investors’ ex ante expectations. Investors are overly optimistic about their teams’ prospects ex ante and, on average, end up disappointed ex post, leading to negative postgame abnormal returns. Our evidence may have important implications for firms’ investment decisions and corporate control transactions.     

Costly external financing, investment timing, and investment–cash flow sensitivity

This paper examines the effects of costly external financing on the optimal timing of a firm's investment. By altering the optimal investment timing, costly financing affects current investment and the sensitivity of investment to internal cash flow. Importantly, the relation between the cost of external funds and investment–cash flow sensitivity is non-monotonic. Investment–cash flow sensitivity is decreasing in the cost of external financing when it is relatively low and is increasing in the financing cost when it is high. Empirical tests examining investment–cash flow sensitivities within groups of firms classified by proxies for their costs of external funds provide evidence consistent with the model. The model and the empirical results complement recent studies by Cleary, Povel and Raith [Cleary, S., Povel, P. and Raith, M., 2007. The U-shaped investment curve: theory and evidence, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 42, 1–39.] and Almeida and Campello [Almeida, H. and Campello, M., in press, Financial constraints, asset tangibility and corporate investment, Review of Financial Studies.] that show a non-monotonic relation between firms' investment and the availability of internal funds.     

Analyzing occupational licensing among the states

The study provides new evidence of the influence of occupational regulations on the U.S. economy. Our analysis, unlike previous studies, was able to obtain a representative sample of the population at the state level, which allowed us to estimate the cross-sectional effects of occupational licensing for each state. The state-level analysis demonstrates considerable variation in percentage of the workforce that has attained a license, and unlike minimum wages or unionization, licensing shows no regional patterns in the distribution of occupational licensing. The analysis also shows considerable variation in the influence of licensing on earnings across the states. The national estimates suggest that occupational licensing raises wages by about 11% after controlling for human capital and other observable characteristics. Finally, our analysis shows the influence of occupational regulation on wage inequality across the income distribution.     

Voluntary Disclosure and Informed Trading*

This study analyzes the impact of informed trading on voluntary corporate disclosure in the presence of two factors: the cost of disclosure and the value of a manager's informedness. In the absence of both factors, informed trading has no impact on disclosure even when traders are not certain whether the manager has information. When disclosure is costly, informed trading serves as a free substitute for the disclosure of favorable information, and reduces disclosure. Surprisingly, when the manager's informedness is valuable for the firm, informed trading can also increase disclosure. Traders can discover unfavorable information about the firm, so managers with such information have less incentive to pool with uninformed managers and disclose to show that they are informed. The study also demonstrates that informed trading can have either a positive or a negative effect on firm value by crowding in or crowding out information production in the firm. These results hold for general information structures and are robust if traders can choose how much information can be acquired.     

War and well-being in transition: Evidence from two natural experiments

This paper assesses the effect of the Russo–Georgian conflict of 2008 and the Ukrainian–Russian conflict of 2014 on the well-being of minorities in Russia. Using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), we find that the well-being of Georgians in Russia suffered negatively from the 2008 Russo–Georgian conflict. We show that the conflict has no direct effect on the labor market outcomes of Georgians, and therefore, we attribute the negative effect of conflict on well-being to more indirect channels such as fear, altruism, or sympathy. In comparison, we find no general effect of the Ukrainian–Russian conflict of 2014 on the Ukrainian nationals’ happiness. However, the life satisfaction of Ukrainians who reside in the southern regions of Russia in close proximity to Ukraine is negatively affected. We also show that the negative effect of conflict is short-lived with no long-term legacy. Additionally, we analyze the spillover effects of conflict on other minorities in Russia. We find that while the well-being of non-slavic and migrant minorities who have recently moved to Russia is negatively affected, there is no effect on local minorities who have been living in Russia for at least ten years.